In April of 2000 I took a development course and got a free copy of XML Magazine. I didn’t get what the actual value of the technology was. A few months later, I realized that there was nothing to get – if XML had value, the guys hyping the magazine didn’t know it yet.
And if you don’t get the same feeling listening to the gurus talk about cloud computing, I suspect you haven’t been listening close enough.
But first, the Good News
Just like the XML, Cloud Computing does have some places where it can add value. I argue that, in the next few yeas, we will see some generally useful applications and niches for cloud computing. Eventually, over time, some organizations will be be able to to ‘give up’ their data centers and turn on web servers like a we turn on electricity or tap water – but anyone familiar with virtual web hosting allready has a deal like that. Eventually, it might be possible to place our servers and databases in the grid and turn up the number of servers when demand spikes. Still, Tim Chou wrote “The End Of Software” four years ago, and the sad fact is that that capability is still years out. What do I believe about cloud computing today?
The Bad News
– Cloud Computing will have limited applications compared to the over-hype it has now,
– It will take years to realize those applications,
– Exactly what you should be doing with cloud computing will probably be very different from what todays ‘visionaries’ are telling you
– The ‘visionaries’ who are currently hyping cloud computing will probably shake out of the market before the true value and applicability of cloud computing is realized
It would be nice to be proven wrong. For the time being, I believe the smart money is against the hype machine.
Cloud Computing is the new XML.
Remember: You heard it here first.